The Metaverse is 31 Years Old

 

I have a few favorite speculative fiction books that I read every few years. Most of them are simple touchstones of the generation I belong to or remind me of fond days spending an entire day as an adolescent burning through a new book that I’d found. Snow Crash, by Neal Stephenson (2003), isn’t one of those pre-teen memories, rather it’s a book that I discovered in my twenties while sinking into the culture of software development and coding as I started my first real career. The book describes a deeply dystopian future but includes many startling predictions which have come to pass to varying degrees. Predictions like the rise of corporate conglomerates controlling many aspects of life and the franchising of nearly every service or experience including the Mafia and entire cultures are sufficiently general to be ignored as specific scenario predictions.

And then there is Stephenson’s coining of the term, “metaverse”, and his description of fully realized virtual world that can be experienced through equipment that provides a visual, auditory, and tactile interface. His detailed descriptions of the technology which represent a substantial part of the book’s plot are specific enough to qualify as a prediction. And what a prediction it is, fully realized not only in form but in name. In October 2021 Facebook, one of the largest technology companies in the world, announced the company’s name would be changed to Meta to reflect their focus on building the digital and virtual worlds of the future (Needleman, 2021). Facebook describes their “vision of the metaverse as the successor to the mobile internet – a set of interconnected digital spaces … characterized by social presence” (Connect 2021, 2021). Stephenson’s specific vision of the future is coming to pass, down to the name of the technology and the company behind it.

Many forces will determine whether Meta’s bet on the metaverse will be successful. Technological challenges are at the forefront of fully realizing the metaverse, as fully realized digital worlds demand technical capabilities that are still not fully available. The human nervous system requires integrated input synchronized to within tens of milliseconds to forestall dizziness and disorientation, and auditory cues that do not match visual cues, or visual cues which are in conflict with our sense of proprioception, can cause motion sickness and nausea. Processing the graphics associated with the metaverse requires expensive, bulky, and power-hungry equipment even after more than a decade of development. Economic forces will both drive and hinder the success of the metaverse. The virtual world presents an entirely new marketplace for consumption which may drive adoption by brands, influencers, and ultimately consumers. However, the cost of engaging in this new digital world is steep, and that is likely to keep it exclusive for years to come – especially with respect to the digital third world.

I’m glad to live at the border of the coming transition between the fully physical world and the equally real virtual world. While I’ve played around in virtual worlds, I don’t yet find them sufficiently compelling or distinguished from my experiences in the real world to invest significant time in them. I’m certain that will change.

References

Connect 2021: Our vision for the metaverse. (2021, October 28). Tech at Meta. https://tech.facebook.com/reality-labs/2021/10/connect-2021-our-vision-for-the-metaverse/

Needleman, S. E. (2021, October 28). Facebook changes company name to Meta in focus on metaverse. Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/mark-zuckerberg-to-sketch-out-facebooks-metaverse-vision-11635413402

Stephenson, N. (1992). Snow crash. Bantam Dell.